One blue-lettered poster shows a barrage of missiles heading toward a map of the United States that is in flames. It boasts, “The entire mainland United States is within our range!”
Another says: “Military option. Preventive war. Sanctions.” Then it shows red missiles emerging from a North Korean flag to slam into the United States Capitol and eviscerate the American flag. It carries the words: “The Korean answer!”
“Eleven Seconds into the Unknown” has a great chapter on RVs that explains why it is a mistake to assume North Korea won’t figure it out. pic.twitter.com/YCJ1wl4Zlt
— Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk)August 5, 2017
Earthquakes and explosions generate several types of seismic waves, starting with P, or primary, waves. These waves are the first to arrive at a distant station. Next come S, or secondary, waves, which travel through the ground in a shearing motion, taking longer to arrive. Finally come waves that ripple across the surface, including those called Rayleigh waves.
In an explosion as compared with an earthquake, the amplitudes of Rayleigh waves are smaller than those of the P waves.
North Korea’s second test of an intercontinental missile on July 28 demonstrated at least two important new realities. First, even experts who doubted the country’s range capabilities after the first test on July 4 now concede that it can likely strike the eastern coast of the United States with a nuclear weapon, if it were to fire this missile along the right trajectory. Second, North Korea appeared to simulate an operational missile launch, which means it wants to show off the kinds of procedures it might use in wartime and convey to Washington that preemption is no longer a realistic option.
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The U.S. intelligence community expects North Korea to gain a reliable and operational ICBM capability by 2018.
North Korea has thus tried to show that any future war on the Korean Peninsula from here on out will be a devastating nuclear war, hoping that this will successfully deter Washington. But for deterrence to work, Washington would have to accept what the enemy is really capable of. Imagining a military option in North Korea that doesn’t expose the U.S. homeland to nuclear strike today, as Graham has done, is the kind of dangerous folly that could lead to immense devastation.
With its second—apparently successful—flight test of the Hwasong-14 on July 28, North Korea may soon be able to field an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). However, a number of critical questions remain about how soon Pyongyang could field a reliable weapon, not the least of which is whether or not North Korea can shield a nuclear warhead from the rigors of re-entry into the earth’s atmosphere at ICBM velocities.[1] Video of the Hwasong-14 test has emerged that casts doubt on the North’s ability to do so.
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In the video, peak radiance—when the clouds reflect the RVs radiance resulting in a bright flash—occurs when it is at 6 to 8 km altitude, and a fraction of a second before it passes through or behind a layer of clouds. Soon after the flash, the RV descends to roughly 4 or 5 km altitude, where the frictional forces that slow and heat the RV reach a maximum. At this point, the RV appears to be shedding small radiant objects and is trailed by an incandescent vapor. At an altitude of 3 to 4 km, the RV then dims and quickly disappears. This occurs before the RV passes behind the mountain range and is obscured from the camera’s view, indicating that it disintegrated about the time it experienced maximum stressing loads. Had the RV survived the rigors of re-entry, it would have continued to glow until disappearing behind the mountains.
In short, a reasonable conclusion based on the video evidence is that the Hwasong-14’s re-entry vehicle did not survive during its second test. If this assessment accurately reflects reality, North Korea’s engineers have yet to master re-entry technologies and more work remains before Kim Jong Un has an ICBM capable of striking the American mainland.
Korean Central Television broadcast of July 29, 2017, received via satellite.
NEW footage via @nhk_news of #NorthKorea’s rocket launch from off the coast of #Hokkaido. pic.twitter.com/d9eIYui0gd
— The Intel Crab (@IntelCrab)July 28, 2017
North Korea may soon conduct a second test of its two-stage, liquid-fueled Hwasong-14 (KN20) intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), The Diplomat has learned from a U.S. government source with knowledge of North Korea’s weapons programs.
The test is likely to occur from near Panghyon Airport or elsewhere near Kusong, in North Korea’s North Pyongan province. North Korea’s first-ever ICBM flight-test was launched from a launchpad near Panghyon Airport.
U.S. military intelligence has spotted a Hwasong-14 transporter-erector and firing-table transporter in Kusong, the source tells The Diplomat. While road-mobile, the Hwasong-14 ICBM, at least in its testing and development configuration, requires a static firing-table for launch.
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Based on the demonstrated performance of the July 4 test, the Hwasong-14 is assessed to at least be capable of striking targets 7,500 kilometers away. The United States government assesses that the missile’s performance may range up to 9,500 kilometers and some independent assessments anticipate a greater potential range yet — sufficient to strike well into the contiguous United States, including East Coast urban centers.
On July 4, North Korea flight-tested its longest-range proven ballistic missile to date, claiming that it has developed an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of striking the United States. The United States ultimately confirmed North Korea’s claim after initially classifying the projectile as a “land-based, intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM).” U.S. officials now say they believe North Korea successfully flight-tested an ICBM. The missile appears to be a two-stage liquid fuel design. Six months after President Donald Trump suggested on Twitter that a North Korean ICBM capability “won’t happen,” it appears that it has.
The consequences of what happened on July 4 are hard to exaggerate. The ICBM test is an important milestone in the overall development of North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, and crystallizes several ongoing trends in its nuclear force development and strategy. The launch also fundamentally changes the nature of the threat posed by North Korea to the United States and its regional allies, handing the Trump administration a difficult problem it can no longer avoid.
What took off from the launch pad was unlike any missile seen before in North Korea’s ritualistic military parade. To date, two types of ICBM size missiles were paraded: the three-stage HS (Hwasong) 13, first appearing in the 2012 parade, and the two stage HS 14 that rolled down Pyongyang main thoroughfare in 2015.
North Korea dubbed the July 4 missile “HS 14”, but the images released exhibited significant differences. While the tested missile was clearly two stage, the second stage was not identical to that of the paraded HS 14. In fact, it resembled the third stage of the older HS13. At the same time, its front end resembled nothing seen before. This was a new, single warhead reentry vehicle with a blunter (and admittedly more realistic looking) nose tip.
Photos of the ascending missile taken from below revealed what might be even a bigger surprise. It was believed until now that first stage of both ICBM like missiles – the HS 13 and HS 14 – is powered by a pair of rocket motors in tandem. Instead, the images from the flight test showed what could be a single rocket motor, with four small steering motors surrounding it.
A similar arrangement was seen in a new, powerful rocket motor tested by North Korea last March. If true, this signifies another major departure from previous designs. Changing the propulsion system in a ballistic missile is a major operation. It requires significant modification of the missile structures and software. The result is, in many cases, tantamount to a new missile.
The biggest surprise is that this practically new missile with its revised dimensions, propulsion system, and flight characteristics succeeded in its first flight test. Missiles are notoriously finicky and tend to fail in their first few tests, since debugging them completely can only be achieved by trial and error – hence the repeating flight tests of operational missiles like the US and Russia’s ICBMs.
There is no guarantee that ensuing tests of the North Korean ICBM will also succeed, but a success in the very first test usually signifies a robust design. It seems that the North Korean engineers know what they are doing.
North Korean Hwasong-14 ICBM, 2017-07-04 launch
SEOUL, July 4 (Yonhap) – North Korea on Tuesday announced the successful launch of its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the latest in a series of provocative acts that defy international condemnation. North Korea test-fired the missile, called the Hwasong-14, under the observance of its leader Kim Jong-un, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). Kim signed an order for the test-fire, it added. It said the missile reached an altitude of 2,802 kilometers and flew 933 km for 39 minutes before hitting a target in the East Sea. “The success of the ICBM launch at its first trial is the final gateway to completing our nuclear force. It marked a phenomenal event in our history as we are seeking the simultaneous pursuit of nuclear and economic development,” the KCNA said. North Korea called itself a “full-fledged nuclear power” that possesses ICBMs that can hit targets in any place in the world.
2017 continues to strive towards new heights of weirdness
North Korea is on track to conduct a record number of missile tests this year, with the ultimate goal of developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to the continental United States. During his 2017 New Year’s Day speech, North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un said that his country had “entered the final stage of preparation for the test launch of an ICBM.” North Korean state media outlets have repeatedly asserted that despite international protests, the country has the right to conduct such a test at the time of its choosing. And during an April 15 parade in Pyongyang, the regime showed off two different kinds of vehicles, six apiece, each carrying large missile canisters apparently designed to carry ICBMs.
No one doubts that Kim Jong Un wants an ICBM; many, however, wonder whether his missileers are close to delivering one that works. North Korea today has at least four paths to a working ICBM, and although each has its drawbacks, taken together, they suggest a country that will likely succeed before too long.
This range is considerably longer than the estimated range of the Musudan missile, which showed a range of about 3,000 km in a test last year. Guam is 3,400 km from North Korea. Reaching the US West Coast would require a missile with a range of more than 8,000 km. Hawaii is roughly 7,000 km from North Korea.
This missile may have been the new mobile missile seen in North Korea’s April 15 parade. It appears to be a two-stage liquid-fueled missile.
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